What Will Our Domestic Conflict Look Like?

Posted: May 11, 2018 by gamegetterII in Uncategorized

 

Last August, I announced the start of a new project focused on understanding “Low Intensity Conflict” because that’s what probably best describes the future of the United States. That was eight months ago and I surmised that our domestic conflict had already started, although at a very low level. Today I want to address some open ends of that first post and describe what I believe political violence will look like in the future.

One reason why I stopped using the term “civil war” is a) because it’s very vague, and b) because I’m not sure that we’ll actually have an outright civil war. Of course, we might, but I’m less sure of that than I am that we’ll have a domestic conflict marked by political and tribal violence, disestablishment of the rule of law, and maybe regional independence movements. As opposed to a conventional, force-on-force conflict, we’re much more likely to experience irregular, tribal warfare referred to as “Low Intensity Conflict”.

FM 100-20, Military Operations in Low Intensity Conflict (1990, which I believe is no longer valid), provides us an official definition of the term:

Low intensity conflict is a political-military confrontation between… groups below conventional war and above the routine, peaceful competition… It frequently involves protracted struggles of competing principles and ideologies. Low intensity conflict ranges from subversion to the use of armed force. It is waged by a combination of means, employing political, economic, informational, and military instruments. Low intensity conflicts are often localized, generally in the Third World, but contain regional and global security implications.

Earlier this week, an acquaintance told me flat out, “It will never happen”. Well, it’s already happening. “Punch a Nazi” and “Bike lock your local red hat” are maxims of political violence that perfectly describe low intensity conflict (LIC). It’s not outright war; there’s no widespread, daily fighting in the streets to gain territory or expand borders. It’s really more akin to gang or tribal conflict than it is to traditional war. And that’s exactly what LIC is. The organizing being done on the Far Left and Far Right are a precursor to conflict waiting for a flashpoint or catalyst. The militias on the Right and the radicals and revolutionaries on the Left have organized for decades. They’re here, they’re angry, their views of American history and their desired future are inimically opposed, and there could absolutely be a tipping point that, in their eyes, demands violence. This is not an analytical leap because this type of violence is already happening, just at a very low level. The real leap, however, is to view these indicators and their exhibited desire to commit violence on behalf of their ideology, and then say or believe that things are going to get better instead of worse. I’m seriously interested in the case for how and why political, racial, and social wounds are more likely to heal than worsen, and how and why our political divide is more likely to be bridged than widened.

Read the rest @ Forward Observer        here

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